JPM-Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker December 8：2025 26 Corn and Soybe...-20251209

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly updateon the soybean and corn harvest.

Corn. For the 2025/26 season, production estimates in Mato Grosso arecurrently at 52 million tons (-6% y/y), primarily due to a 7% y/y reduction inproductivity, although the cultivated area is expected to increase by 2%. Theupcoming harvest comes on top of a record-high level in the 2024/25 seasonof 55 million tons (+15% y/y). The commercialization rate for the 2024/25season reached 83% in November, +2.3 p.p. m/m as producers releasedinventory ahead of the soybean harvest but it is -6.4 p.p. y/y, due to reducedexternal demand and lower competitiveness in the foreign market. For the2025/26 crop, sales progressed slowly, up 1.70 p.p. to 25.26%, reflectingproducers’ caution amid uncertainties for the next cycle. The average price forthe 2025/26 crop in November fell 1.38%, ending the month at R$45.57 persack. According to Secex, Mato Grosso exported 2.8 million tons of corn inNovember, -31% m/m and -9.6% y/y. From July to November, exports totaled16.5 million tons, -13% y/y, mainly due to higher global supply from the US,China, and Argentina.

Soybean. Soybean production expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at47.2 million tons (-7% y/y), following 2024/25 at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y).As of November, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 98% (+1.3p.p. m/m), while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 38% (+2.3p.p. m/m), but it is tracking 2.8 p.p. below last year’s levels and -7 p.p. whencompared to the last five years’ average. According to Secex, Braziliansoybean exports reached 4.2 million tons in November, +64% y/y, totaling 105million tons YTD (+6% y/y). Mato Grosso exported 31 million tons shippedon a YTD basis (+26% y/y), representing 30% of Brazil exports. Chinaaccounted for 70% of Mato Grosso’s exports, and IMEA estimates the state’s24/25 exports at 31 million tons (+27% y/y).

Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of December 5 th , the Sorriso-Santos truckfreight rate was +3.5% w/w and +25% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba ratewas +3.6% w/w and +31% y/y, and Sorriso-Rondonópolis was +1.0 w/w and+20% y/y.