DB-Vale Vale Day 2025：guidance update and copper growth plans-20251202

Vale Day 2025: strategy and updated guidance

Earlier today, Vale hosted its annual strategy session ("Vale Day 2025"), providingrefreshed multi-year guidance (we provide a detailed summary within). Overall,there were no big surprises; the company has a constructive view on the iron oremarket (price expected to average around $100/t over the medium term) and Vale’s2030 strategy continues to focus on delivering high-quality iron ore and deliveringcopper growth. The company expects to come in at the top end of the 2025production guidance ranges, but has lowered 2026 guidance for iron ore and nickelby 3% (copper unchanged). While iron ore volume guidance has been lowered,management stated that this is due to market conditions and not operationalconstraints, which in our view, points to ongoing supply discipline. Vale remainsfocused on capital discipline and has reiterated its $10-20bn net debt target range,with $1bn in additional dividends to be paid in January 2026. Hold.