BofA-Basic Materials-China Copper Aluminum Surge；Steel Margins Recover；Paper Up,Cement Weak-20251201

Metals: Copper & Ally Rally; Gold & Lithium Strengthen

Copper prices surged this week on dovish Fed signals, weak U.S. data, and growing rate-cut expectations, while progress in U.S.-Russia peace talks and a softer dollar addedsupport. LME copper rose 4.2% WoW to US$11,234/t, with China price up 1.7% toRMB87,440/t. LME aluminum gained 3.2% WoW to US$2,842/t, and China price edgedup 0.3% to RMB21,450/t, lifting aluminum margins by RMB79/t WoW to RMB5,561/t.COMEX gold climbed 4% WoW to US$4,239/oz. Domestic battery-grade lithiumcarbonate (99.5%) averaged RMB93,800/t (+2.7% WoW) as of Nov 27. Uranium U₃O₈spot eased 0.5% WoW to US$75.9/lb, while Shanghai Changjiang cobalt rose 0.4% WoWto RMB404,000/t.

Steel: Margins Recover on Price Gains, Lower Coke Costs

This week, ferrous metals mostly rose early before stabilizing, while coke and cokingcoal remained weak. Early in the week, the Xi-Trump call, property policy signals, andShaanxi’s plan to phase out coal mines under 600kt boosted sentiment, driving a broadrally. Later, news that Mongolia and Russia plan to increase coal exports to Chinaweighed on coke prices, and speculation of Vanke restructuring added bearish sentiment.Rebar rose 1.4% WoW to RMB3,314/t, while HRC edged up 0.6% to RMB3,330/t.Destocking continued, with inventories down 2% WoW to 14.0mnt, though apparentconsumption slipped 0.7% to 8.9mnt. Iron ore climbed 2.6% WoW to USD107/t. Highersteel prices and lower coke costs improved margins, with rebar recovering RMB33/tWoW to –RMB337/t and HRC up RMB27/t to –RMB340/t.