JPM-Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker December 1：Corn Internal Consumption...-20251201

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly updateon the soybean and corn harvest.

Corn. Corn demand in MT is currently estimated at 53.7 million tons (-0.46%m/m), mainly due to lower export estimates. Exports are now seen at 27.7million tons (-1.4% m/m), as higher global supply pressures prices and shiftsfocus to domestic sales. Internal consumption is projected at 17.7 million tons(+0.76% m/m +8.6% y/y), driven by increased corn use for ethanol. Inventoriesare expected at 2.2 million tons (+42% m/m). According to IMEA, the averageprice of corn in Mato Grosso closed last week at R$46.88 per sack (-0.9% w/w).This is the first weekly decline since late September 2025. The drop is linkedto a 0.38% drop in CME Group corn futures, which averaged US$4.29/bushel,influenced by ample global supply and high US inventories. Compared to thesame period last year, corn prices in MT are -15.6% y/y.

Soybean. In Mato Grosso, planting reached 99.7% of the area (+0.85 p.p. w/w). Soybean prices in the state were -1.5% w/w, while the CME-Group priceswere -0.7% w/w ending at US$11.4/bu. Meanwhile, soybean meal was -1.4%w/w ending at US$316.7/t according to CME, but it was +0.3% w/w in MatoGrosso. Soybean production expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at 47.2million tons (-7% y/y), following 2024/25 at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y). Asof October, commercialization of the 2025/26 season reached 36% (+4 p.p.m/m), but it is tracking 2 p.p. below last year’s levels and -7 p.p. whencompared to the last five years’ average. In Argentina, the 2025/26 soybeanharvesting reached 36%, and it is tracking behind last cycle and the previousfive-year average.

Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of November 28, the Sorriso-Santos truckfreight rate was -2.6% w/w and +17% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was-4.0% w/w and +22% y/y, and Sorriso-Rondonópolis was flat w/w and +12%y/y.