DB-Precious Special Report Precious Outlook：Gold nearing USD 5,000 oz in 2026-20251126

Gold is breaking historical norms: Outperformance versus the dollarmatches a record set last year, and the 2025 range in gold is the largest since1980.

Constructive gold factors: Stabilising investor flow and technicalmeasures indicate a positioning correction has completed. Third quartersupply-demand data supports a continued central bank bid. The positivestructural picture shows inelastic demand from central banks and ETFinvestment diverting supply from the jewellery market. Also, overall growthin demand outpaces supply.

Upgrade to 2026 forecast: These factors argue for an upgrade to our 2026forecast towards USD 4,450/oz from USD 4,000/oz previously, and a yearlyrange from 3,950-4,950/oz in 2026. A high of USD 4,950/oz would be apremium of 14% over current Dec'26 GC futures.

Positive implications for white metals: Consecutive years of undersupplyenables silver, platinum and palladium to participate more fully in gold'sstrength. Elevated lease rates indicate physical scarcity which affectsindustrial users, many of whom prefer to lease than own. We expect supply-demand to remain in deficit for silver and platinum next year, whilepalladium is balanced.

Risks: Gold often exhibits a positive correlation to risk, so a deeper equitymarket correction would be damaging, as would our House view for lessFed easing than the market expects in 2026 (-50 bps vs -93 bps). Anegotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a temporarynegative. In the bigger picture, reserve managers could slow their pace ofbuying, and dramatic increases in real gold prices are often followed bysignificant corrections.