JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之1.2, Gold 百分之1.7...-20251113

2025 CMD First Take: Upside to shareholder returns with revised policy; higher-than-expected capex & cost guidance in focus; stay Overweight

Our Take - ~20% upside to shareholder returns over FY’26/27, but medium-term capex and AISC guided higher: Gold Fields is hosting its 2025 CMD today (presentation starting 13:00 UK Time) and pre-released its presentation (link). Key highlights from the presentation include: 1) Revised shareholder returns policy: GFI revises its shareholder return policy to base dividend of 35% of FCF (before growth capex). Given the strong cash generation, GFI also announced up to $500m additional shareholder returns via dividends/buybacks over the next two years. Details to be announced in 2025 final dividend declaration. 2) Medium-term production & AISC guidance: Management targets mid-term production to 2030 between 2.5Moz and 3.0Moz with AISC of ~$1,700/oz. Although production guidance is broadly in line with JPMe and slightly below BBG cons, AISC is ~10-15% higher vs BBG cons for the next five years. 3) Medium-term capex guidance: Management now guides capex to be in the range between $1.9bn and $2.1bn pa from FY26-28 (of which ~$1.8bn on Windfall),which is significantly higher vs JPMe/BBG cons, mostly driven by discretionary and Windfall capex spend. 4) Windfall project: GFI clarifies the timeline for the project where base case is first gold in H1’29 whilst upside to H2’28 first output remains if government approval is received by Q1’26. We had placed GFI on positive Catalyst Watch into this event on potential positive updates with shareholder return policies and mid-term guidance. We expect a mixed reaction given the updated shareholder return policy, however, higher capex and opex. We expect the focus during the CMD this afternoon to be around the higher-than-expected AISC and capex guidance into 2030. Gold Fields trades on mark-to-market 5.1x/4.5x 2026/27E EV/EBITDA, 9% FCF yield. We rate Gold Fields Overweight.