JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore -百分之0.6, Li Carbonate 百分之2.4...-20251112

Notes from Santiago: key takeaways from a week of site visits, corporate & industry meetings in Chile; stay positive on copper exposure & OW Antofagasta

Last week in Santiago, Chile, we attended investor field trips & management presentations with Antofagasta (OW, Analyst Focus List) & Teck Resources (N, covered by Bill Peterson,link), as well as met with several corporates, including state miner Codelco, Diversfied Miners, mining technology firms, and engineering & consulting firms. Our key takeaways include: 1) increasing project activity could drive further capex inflation in Chile, 2) however,Chile’s overall copper output is likely to remain relatively flat at ~5Mtpa, 3) only modest hopes for regulatory reform improving project timeframes, 4) miners’ technology initiatives are yielding some tangible improvements, but the prospects for new sulphide leaching technologies were more mixed. Overall, this reinforces JPMorgan Commodities Research’s positive outlook for the copper market (link), where they forecast the market is now in a 200-300 deficit in both 2025/26 from a ~300kt surplus in 2024. It also reinforces our positive view on the EMEA Copper Miners. Antofagasta (OW, AFL) remains our top pick among the EMEA Copper Miners, with ~30% copper volume growth to 2028/29, while Rio Tinto (OW,Positive Catalyst Watch), which derives ~25% of 2026E EBITDA from copper, is our Top Pick among the Diversified Miners. We also remain OW on First Quantum.