JPM-Brazil Iron Ore Steel Secex October Data：Iron Ore Exports Remain Solid...-20251107

October Summary: Iron ore exports have a positive month; steel imports increase, but HRC contracts. Iron ore export volumes of 40,701kt were up 11.5% m/m and 15.4% y/y. The monthly increase was led by Itaguaí (CSN’s main port) up 12.7%, São Luís (Vale’s main port) up 9.1%, then Goitacazes with a 72.7% rise,followed by Vitória up 7.4%. In the steel sector, October flat steel imports totaled 300.1kt, rising 3.2% m/m but declining 4.3% y/y. Despite this annual contraction,imports remain elevated, with a robust 28.7% YTD increase, building on an already strong performance in 2024. For the month, the increase was mainly due to a 62.7% rise in coated products imports, partially offset by a 65.6% contraction in uncoated products, especially HRC, which decreased 89.4%. Long steel imports of 99.9kt increased by 42.6% m/m while decreasing by 11.9% compared to last year and 28.7% YTD. On the exports side, flat steel volumes increased by 36.6% m/m and 222.8% y/y, led by uncoated products, up 64.1% m/m and 431.8% y/y.Long steel exports increased by 14.4% m/m and contracted by 26.6% y/y.

•Iron ore exports remain strong, increasing 11.5% m/m and 15.4% y/y.October iron ore exports reached 40,701kt, marking an increase of 11.5% m/m (+ 4,200 kt) and 15.4% y/y. Monthly growth was observed across all major ports. Itaguaí (CSN’s main port) was up 12.7%, São Luís (Vale’s main port) increased 9.1%, then Goitacazes with a 72.7% rise, followed by Vitória up 7.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the overall increase was driven by strong gains in Goitacazes (up 129.9%), Itaguaí (up 32%), and Vitória (up 25.5%).This was partially offset by a 8.6% decline in São Luís.

•Flat imports increase, but HRC import level reduces. Even though flat steel imports contracted 4.3% compared to last year, volumes of 300.1kt increased by 3.2% compared to last month and remain up 28.7% YTD, coming from historically high numbers in 2024. For the month, the increase was mainly due to a 62.7% rise in coated products imports, partially offset by a 65.6% contraction in uncoated products. HRC was the driver with a 89.4% decrease.Compared to October last year, most products contracted. Uncoated decreased by 62.1% as HRC and CRC had 77.4% and 58.7% contractions, respectively.YTD, uncoated products were a negative highlight, increasing by 5.7% due to a 34.6% YTD increase in HRC, partially offset by CRC, which decreased by 24.7%. For longs, volumes of 99.9kt increased by 42.6% m/m, although showing a decrease of 11.9% compared to last year and 2.9% YTD. The monthly increase was mainly driven by concrete reinforcing bars, wire rod, and light shapes, while the year-over-year contraction was attributed to medium and heavy shapes.