Barclays-Barclays Metals Mining Mined Matters – Iron ore...-20251107

Our weekly briefing covering top news flow in the space,chart of the week, latest positioning data, commodity price moves, sound bites from the supply chain, recent global research, upcoming events, and corporate access.

Chart of the Week

FIGURE 1. Iron ore price seasonality typically turns positive from November over the subsequent three months. Our preferred expressions to play this are Vale and Rio Tinto (both OW rated). We see positive company-specific catalysts in addition - for Rio via the CMD (4 Dec), and Vale from a potential early dividend declaration and Vale Day on 2 Dec (lower capex/unit cost guidance, potential copper growth acceleration).