BofA-European Metals Mining Weekly ArcelorMittal.EU policy in focus.Erdemir...-20251110

ArcelorMittal (MT): Q3 beat. Eyes on EU Steel policy

Reported 3Q25 EBITDA of $1,508m, +4% vs Consensus (VA), 0% vs BofAe, -5% yoy.Europe EBITDA of $513m was +7% vs Cons. Outlook: 'Encouraging EU trade policy momentum to restore fair competition', which together with effective CBAM could allow EU to earn its cost of capital (which we estimate implies EU EBITDA >$4bn medium-term), +ve FCF outlook for 2025+, reiterated target to return 50% of FCF after dividend.(See report on MT).

Erdemir (EREGL): First gold resource for Alacahan

Eagerly anticipated by the market since company announced that it had found signs of gold on one of its properties. Details: Grade of resource 0.89g/t, fairly low, in our view.Total implied ounces also fairly low at 424 koz. According to the company, exploration activities at the site are ongoing = Upside potential from here. (See report on EREGL).