BofA-Indonesia Watch Oct inflation exaggerated by gold prices...-20251103

Uptick in Oct inflation exaggerated by gold prices

In y/y terms, headline inflation rose to 2.86% in Oct vs. 2.65% in Sep, while core inflation edged up to 2.36% in Oct vs. 2.19% in Sep. The readings were exaggerated by sharp jump in gold prices by 11% m/m. Gold accounts for 0.95% of headline CPI basket and 1.46% of core CPI basket. If gold prices were unchanged vs. Sep, we estimate headline inflation stable at 2.65% in Oct, and core inflation lower (rather than higher) at 2.03% in Oct. Elsewhere, the Statistics Office observed that Nutritious Meal Program has contributed to some upward pressure for prices of chicken meat (0.14% of CPI basket) and chicken eggs (0.93% of CPI basket).