BofA-European Metals Mining Weekly GLEN guide tightened. AAL Q3 inline. Gold...-20251103

Glencore: Guidance ranges tightened

Q3 production (only). Copper 240 kt, -1% YoY, +3% vs company compiled consensus (47% vs our H2e). Energy coal 25 Mt, -3% YoY, +15% vs consensus. Coking coal 9 Mt,+17% YoY, +13% vs consensus. Zinc 244 kt, +8% YoY, -2% vs consensus. Guidance:Marketing: Expect at mid-point of range ($2.3-$3.5bn). Production guidance ranges tightened: Copper 850-875kt (was 850-890kt), Zinc 950-975kt (was 940-980kt), Nickel 70-72kt (was 74-80kt), Energy coal 92-97Mt (was 90-96Mt), Met Coal 30-35Mt unchanged. Company to host CMD on 3 December. (See report on GLEN).

Anglo American: Q3 inline. Progress on restructuring.

Q3 production only. Key commodities iron ore, copper roughly inline. Iron ore 14.3 Mt, -9% YoY, 46% vs our H2e, 50% vs Visible Alpha (VA) H2. Copper 184 kt, +1% YoY, 47% vs our H2e and VA H2. Exit/non core: Diamonds 7.7MCt, +38% YoY, 66% vs our H2e, 72% vs VA. Met coal 1.9 Mt, -54% YoY, 48% vs VA H2. Guide: Largely unchanged (Minas Rio now 23-25Mt, from 22-24Mt). Restructuring: "Good progress" with dual track separation/sale of Diamonds. Continuing to work through regulatory approvals for Nickel.Preparations underway to restart sale process for Met Coal. (See report on AAL).