JPM-Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker November 3：Soybean Planting Reached 百分之76-20251104

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update on the soybean and corn harvest.

•Soybean. Soybean production expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y), following 2024/25 at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y).As of October, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 96% (+4 p.p.m/m), while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 32% (+4 p.p.m/m), but it is tracking 2 p.p. below last year’s levels and -8 p.p. when compared to the last five years average. By last Friday, 76% of the soybean area in the state had been planted, +16 p.p w/w. This week ended 3.4 p.p. behind last year. Rainfall levels have been irregular in recent days, but forecasts indicate that conditions should normalize moving forward. This improvement is expected to reduce the need for re-planting portions of the crop. According to IMEA, soybean harvesting is projected to reach 23% by the end of January, which is ahead of both the five-year average and last year’s pace. However, it is important to note that the actual harvesting rate will continue to depend on how climate conditions evolve in the coming weeks.

•Corn. For the 2025/26 season, production estimates in Mato Grosso are currently at 52 million tons (-6% y/y), primarily due to a 7% y/y reduction in productivity, although the cultivated area is expected to increase by 2%. The upcoming harvest comes on top of a record-high level in the 2024/25 season of 55 million tons (+15% y/y). The commercialization rate for the 2024/25 season reached 78% in September (+9 p.p. m/m). For the 2025/26 harvest,commercialization is at 21% (+6 p.p. m/m). Corn export parity averaged R $38.5/sc in October, down 2.4% m/m, while B3 prices was +1.9% m/m, driven by supportive domestic demand and FX. Export parity remains above crop expenses at R$28.4/sc, but below the operational cost estimate at R$41.1/sc, signaling producer caution. Despite recent gains, B3 prices are still -3.8% y/y,with market stability expected as the 2025/26 crop progresses.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of October 31 st , the Sorriso-Santos truck freight rate was +2% w/w and +7% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was flat w/w and +17% y/y, and Sorriso-Rondonópolis was -1% w/w and +8% y/y.