MS-Southern Copper Corp. Solid 3Q25 Beat Driven by Strong By-Product Credits-20251028

3Q25 Results: Adjusted EBITDA of US$1,977m (+19% Y/Y and +10% Q/Q) was 8% above the Visible Alpha consensus of US$1,836m and 1% above our US$1,948m estimate. The slight beat to our model was mainly driven by higher revenues on account of better than expected copper sales volumes and by-product credits, more than offsetting higher than expected COGS. Normalized EPS of US$1.35 was 11% above the VA consensus of US$1.22 and 6% above our estimate of US$1.28; relative to our number, the beat was on the back of the better than expected operating results and lower taxes (effective tax rate of 36% vs. 39% MSe).

Cash from operations of US$1,560m was significantly above the VA consensus of US $1,118m and our US$1,195m estimate on lower working capital needs.