MS-Jiangxi Copper 3Q25 Earnings Miss-20251028

JXC reported a 21% YoY increase in 9M25 net profit to Rmb6.0bn: 3Q25 earnings up 35% YoY but down 17% QoQ to Rmb1.8bn, below our and consensus expectations. The weak earnings QoQ was possibility due to the lower-margin contribution from the company's smelting business as the percentage of spot copper concentrate usage increased in the quota due to the change in the raw material strategy in response to the expectation of further decline in the annual TCRC in 2026. Gross margin narrowed 0.6ppt QoQ in 3Q25. Net gearings rose to 43% in 3Q25 vs. 41% in 3Q24 on higher debt level.