JPM-LATAM FIRST TO MARKET Top Stories-20251027

Q3’25 results wrap: 2025 output now guided to lower end & 2026 production guidance -4% vs Con,but copper growth to 2028 still ~30%; stay OW

We update our forecasts to reflect Antofagasta’s Q3’25 results (First Take: link). Q3’25 copper production was +2% vs JPMe while copper sales were -11% vs JPMe, owing to weather conditions at Los Pelambres. Gold production was +2% vs JPMe whilst Molybdenum output missed JPMe by 9% . Q3 gross cash cost was +4% vs JPMe but net C1 cash cost were -7% vs JPMe with by-product contributions. The Centinela Second Concentrator project and the Los Pelambres’ Growth Enabling projects remain on track and on budget. For 2025 guidance, ANTO cut copper production guidance to the lower end of the guided range of 660-700kt (JPMe: 653kt). However, net cash costs guidance is lowered to $1.2-1.3/lb and capex guidance lowered by $0.3bn to $3.6bn . Q4 is typically the strongest production quarter for ANTO and we now forecast 176kt copper production in Q4’25. ANTO also issued 2026 copper output guidance of 650kt - 700kt , which was - 5% vs JPMe of 708kt & -4% vs company compiled consensus of ~704kt . This is due to a step-down in Centinela copper grade, offset by an increase in Los Pelambres copper grade. Management will provide cash costs and capex guidance for 2026 in Q4’25 reporting (Jan’26). Incorporating Q3’25 results, we revise our 2025E/26E EBITDA forecasts by -3%/-7% and we sit +2%/+3% vs BBG 28-day consensus. Consequently, we revise our our Dec’26 PT to £34.00/sh . We estimate ANTO is trading on spot 11.1x/9.8x 2025/26 EV/EBITDA vs its peers on 7.9x/6.1x . We stay Overweight.