JPM-Jiangxi Copper-A H First Take：3Q25 earings in line；slower growth vs peers-20251029

Our First Take: JXC’s 3Q25 NPAT of Rmb1.85bn (+35% YoY, -17% QoQ) was in line with BBG consensus. Its 3Q25 GPM further deteriorated to 2.6% (vs. 3.2% in 2Q25), primarily attributed to: 1) negative short-term contract (accounts for ~10%) TC/RC, and 2) an investment loss of Rmb436mn. We view the ongoing tightness in copper concentrates as a major headwind for copper refiners, evidenced by the TC spot price continuing to fall to -$47/t in October 2025. Amid recent supply disruptions at upstream mines, we hold a pessimistic outlook on the 4Q LT TC/RC renegotiation. Maintain our relative UW on JXC-A/H.