JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之0.6, Spodumene 百分之1.1...-20251029

Q3’25 Wrap: Collahuasi update introduces new risk to 2026 copper volumes for Anglo & Glencore

We update our forecasts to reflect Anglo’s Q3’25 production results (First Take: link). Most noteworthy is Anglo’s commentary that it now expects 2026 Collahuasi production rates at levels similar to 2025, and 2026 Chile copper guidance is under review (currently 440-470kt). This implies a ~50kt reduction to AAL attributable production at Collahuasi in 2026 and translates to a total of ~114kt reduction at Collahuasi overall (100% basis). This production impact carries a negative read-across to the other 44% owner, Glencore, which we placed on Negative Catalyst Watch into its 3 rd Dec CMD for potential downward revision to its midterm copper production guidance. We expect Glencore to provide updated 2026-28 copper and group production guidance at its CMD (3rd Dec). The potential production cut of ~110kt at Collahuasi also adds to previous copper supply disruptions and could increase our Commodities Research colleagues’ forecasted 300kmt refined copper deficit by Q4’26,which could generate further upward pressure on global copper prices, which is currently trading at >$11,000/mt.