JPM-Anglo American First Take Q325 production - iron ore in line...-20251028

Our Take – Q3 production strong, on-track to achieve 2025 guidance: Q3’25 Copper production is +5% vs JPMe, largely driven by strong production at Los Bronces and Quellaveco, offsetting lower grades at Collahuasi. Iron Ore production is broadly in-line vs JPMe and sales are -2%, Met Coal in-line vs JPMe.Diamonds is significant beat +52% vs JPMe and 9M’25 diamond output tracking at 83% of 2025 guidance. Nickel is +13% beat vs JPMe. 2025 production guidance is largely unchanged except for iron ore where production guidance increased to 58-62Mt (prev 57-61Mt), driven by an upward revision at Minas-Rio. 2025 Cost guidance is unchanged. Given the unchanged guidance, we expect no significant changes to 2025E consensus earnings. Mgmt guide progress being made towards restarting Moranbah North. AAL is also working on regulatory approvals for Nickel sale and making progress with the dual track separation and sale process for De Beers. Anglo American trades on spot 10.5x/7.6x EV/EBITDA 2025/26E, -2%/4% FCF yield. We are Neutral rated.