MS-Kumba Iron Ore 3Q25 Good volumes, miss on price realisations-20251028

Kumba report total iron ore production of 9.25Mt and sales of 9.6Mt. Our estimate was for production of 9.1Mt and sales of 9Mt. This print is ahead of our estimates.

Update on guidance: Kolomela costs to be below guided. 2025 production is still guided at 35-37Mt (VA consensus is 36.4Mt) and sales of 35-37Mt. Given the stronger rail performance, Kumba is tightening this guidance to the higher end of the range. Sishen unit costs are guided at R510-540/t (VA consensus is R534/t. At Kolomela, prior guidance was R430-460/t (VA consensus is R434/t). Without providing specific numbers, the company has suggested costs may beat this range due to stronger production.