MS-Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co. 3Q25 Earnings in Line；Quarterly Dividend a Positive Catalyst-20251029

Nanshan Aluminium reported a 8% YoY increase in 9M25 earnings to Rmb3.8bn:3Q25 net profit realised was Rmb1.1bn, down 12% YoY but up 24% QoQ, in line with our estimate. The better earnings QoQ was mainly attributed to the higher alumina sales volume in overseas, and the higher-margin contribution from aluminium business benefited from higher aluminium price. Gross margin narrowed slightly QoQ to 22% in 3Q25. Solid balance sheet remains with net gearing lowered to 37% in 3Q25 vs. 43% in 1H25. The board declared a dividend of Rmb0.6/share in 3Q25, a positive surprise.

Solid earnings expected in 4Q25: Aluminum prices still see support from resilient demand, lower inventory level as well as the weaker dollar, and are expected to fluctuate at the currently high level, which will lead to solid profit contribution to Nanshan in 4Q25. The weak alumina price may drag on earnings from Indonesia, but the volume growth would partially mitigate the impact. This, together with the stable earnings from aluminum products, would lead to solid earnings for Nanshan heading into year end.