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UBS-Weekly Oil Data Crude build, products draw-20251016

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Another crude build, bearish vs. Consensus

研究对象采掘
发布机构瑞银集团
分析师Nayoung Kim,Henri Patricot,Joshua Stone
发布日期2025-10-16
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Another crude build, bearish vs. Consensus

Crude oil inventories increased by 3.5Mb, bearish vs. the consensus build of 0.3Mb and the 5-year average draw of 1.2Mb. API data released yesterday indicated a larger build of 7.4Mb. Refinery utilisation fell sharply by 670bps w/w to 85.7% of operable capacity (consensus of -10bps w/w). Net imports fell by 1.8Mb/d w/w, while crude production flat w/w at 13.6Mb/d.

Product demand declined w/w

Implied oil products consumption declined by 2.3Mb/d w/w to 19.7Mb/d. The decrease was mainly driven by propane -1.0Mb/d, followed by "Others" -0.8Mb/d, gasoline -0.5Mb/d, and distillate -0.1Mb/d. Fuel oil increased slightly by 0.1Mb/d, while jet fuel stayed broadly flat. On a 4-week average, total demand fell by 1% w/w, to 20.7Mb/d.

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