DB-Metals Mining Copper LME Week. FCX Grasberg.Simandou. Week ahead.Valuations.-20251019

LME Week and copper

LME Week took place last week, with lots of debate over the outlook for copper, in particular. The consensus is bullish, although the bears point to much weaker Chinese demand in H2 (stories this week that Chinese smelters are planning exports as LME prices surge) and a global refined market in surplus. We expect the supply pinch to hit the market later in Q4 and Q1 (global mine supply will be down heavily YoY) and see the market in a clear deficit. Supply could improve from mid-2026, but this will be dependent on operational improvements from several large mines. We effectively apply our long-term real copper price of $10,000/t from now (previously from 2027/28) and assume a short-term peak in prices in Q4'25 and Q1'26 (average of $11,000/t). Our report (The deficit has arrived) provides a detailed summary of our estimates, valuations and recommendations for our European and North American coverage.