BofA-Basic Materials-China Gold price momentum continued；cement steel downturn on weak demand-20251019

Metals: Gold price hike on trade friction

This week’s LME copper price was +1% WoW to US$10,588/t and China price was -2.1% WoW to RMB84,940/t (Changjiang index). LME aluminum price was +1.1% WoW to US$2,790/t and China price was -0.1% wow to RMB20,950/t. Avg. national aluminum margin +RMB55/t WoW to RMB5,100/t. Supported by rising risk-adverse sentiment under trade friction, COMEX gold price jumped by 6% WoW to US$4,252/oz. Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was -0.3% WoW to RMB73.4k/t.

Steel: Lower price on weak demand

Subject to Sino-US trade conflict and weaker-than expected demand during traditional peak season, rebar price settled lower by 1.4% WoW to RMB3,166/t while HRC price traded lower by2% WoW to RMB3,300/t. Finished steel products inventory jumped by 1.2% WoW to 15.8mnt, and apparent consumption recovered by 19% WoW to 8.7mnt.Iron ore price was +0.1% WoW to US$106t. Spot rebar cash margin shrank by RMB15/t WoW to -RMB328/t, and spot HRC cash margin declined by RMB65/t to -RMB314/t.