JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Oct. 20)...-20251020

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update on the soybean and corn harvest. We remain OW on RAIL3, currently trading at 5.4x EV/EBITDA 2026e.

•Soybean. Soybean production expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y), following 2024/25 at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y).As of October, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 96% (+4 p.p.m/m), while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 32% (+4 p.p.m/m), but it is tracking 2 p.p. below last year’s levels and -8 p.p. when compared to the last five years average. By last Friday, 43.6% of the soybean area had been planted, +22 p.p w/w, implying a harvest that is +18 p.p. y/y and 7 p.p. above the previous five-year average. Good rainfall in some regions has helped speed up planting, though some areas have gone over ten days without rain. Next week, expected rainfall of 15–25 mm should support further soybean seeding.

•Corn. For the 2025/26 season, production estimates in Mato Grosso are currently at 52 million tons (-6% y/y), primarily due to a 7% y/y reduction in productivity, although the cultivated area is expected to increase by 2%. The upcoming harvest comes on top of a record-high level in the 2024/25 season of 55 million tons (+15% y/y). The commercialization rate for the 2024/25 season reached 78% in September (+9 p.p. m/m). For the 2025/26 harvest,commercialization is at 21% (+6 p.p. m/m). In September 2025, corn production costs in Mato Grosso were R$ 5,381 per hectare, while the market price was R$ 44.7 per sack. This price level is insufficient for producers to cover their total costs. Input expenses increased 2.9% y/y, especially for seeds and macronutrients, making the exchange ratio more critical and requiring producers to optimize purchases early in the seasons.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of October 17 th , the Sorriso-Santos truck freight rate was flat w/w and +5.5% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was -2.1% w/w and +21% y/y, and Sorisso-Rondonópolis was +1.1% w/w and +13.7% y/y.