BofA-Australian Metals Mining Weekly RIO and ILU Q3. LYC lift PO.Rare Earths export...-20251020

RIO Q3 production fine. Eyes on catalysts

Q3 production (only). Broadly in line. Key iron ore in line (-1% vs. consensus), aluminium in line, copper -1%, bauxite +12%. Guidance unchanged except bauxite upgraded. Street already on low end of iron ore guidance (323-338 Mt) for FY25. Projects progressing well, expect vessel loading at Simandou (iron ore, Guinea) by November 2nd. We see two catalysts for Rio Tinto in the next few months: 1) Capital markets day, December 4th. 2)Lithium site visit. (See report: RIO)

ILU weaker-than-expected 3QFY25 mineral sands update

ILU reported a weaker-than-expected 3Q mineral sands production update and withdrew its synthetical rutile (SR) sales guidance of 200ktpa, due to the risks of the offtake agreements to its customer Venator on weak pigment demand. 3QFY25 Z/R/SR sales reported at 64kt, -42% vs. consensus 112kt, mainly due to 13%/87% lower-than-expected zircon/SR sales. 3QFY25 revenue reported at A$142m, -38% vs. Consensus A$228m. (See report: ILU)