MS-Rumo SA Correction：How Corn Decline Likely Impacts 4Q25 Guidance-20251013

We have made corrections to the bottom line of this article ["With less soy offset, we now see North Ops TKU down in 4Q25 and FY25 results likely ending below the low end of guidance"]. This article was originally published on October 12, 2025 09:44 PM GMT, and is being republished on October 12, 2025. To receive an electronic copy of the original version of this publication, please send an e-mail to Equity_Research_Publishing@morganstanley.com with the publication title and date.

We’re trimming our estimates and resetting expectations. We now forecast Ebitda at R$2.3bn (from R$2.4bn) after updating our model with 3Q25 volumes. While 3Q25 transported volumes came in only slightly below our expectations, the mix was more challenging than anticipated. As a result, we are cutting our yield assumption for the quarter, reflecting weaker pricing dynamics and we now forecast yields at North Ops falling 5% YoY in the 3Q25.