JPM-China Steel-Channel checker 10-day China steel production 百分之9...-20251014

10-day China steel output 854Mt annualised, -9% vs previous: latest China daily crude steel output (10 days to 30 Sept) is -9% vs previous, -9% YoY. Output is the lowest rate for these 10-days since 2016 and the period immediately precedes Golden Week, therefore should not have been directly distorted by the holiday.Trailing 30-day production is -4% vs the previous 30 days (30 July - 30 August).We estimate total China steel output in Sept’25 at ~75Mt, implying output -3% vs August and -3% YoY.

Normal seasonality typically sees China’s steel production decelerate in Q3/Q4.However, May-Aug output was at the lowest rate since ~2018, so too the rate of deceleration into year end. We consider this to be a signal of weak Chinese economic activity; JPM Economists forecast slowing China GDP in Q3/Q4 (+2.3%/+2.5% YoY vs +4.1% in Q2). However, JPM China Economists also see potential for a new RMB 500bn fiscal boost in Oct/Nov aimed at infrastructure and tech, coming ahead of economic planning for China’s new 5 year plan (2026-30).Weaker downstream steel demand, plus a sustained iron ore price >$100/t, has pushed China steel mills back to loss-making margins.