JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch, Aluminium 百分之2...-20250130

2Q25 production beat, but achieved pricing a touch soft; retain Overweight

Key takeaways from the 2Q25 result: 1) Total coal sales (100%-basis) of 8.7Mt were a 15%beat vs our 7.6Mt estimate (20% better at QLD/9% ahead in NSW). 2) Average realized pricing for QLD ($237/t) was 5% below JPMe (75% of PLV) and NSW ($211/t) was 2%below JPMe – we have lowered price realisation in QLD to 76% next quarter and removed our 2% premium to gC NEWC long term). 3) FY25 guidance remains unchanged with unit costs tracking at the lower end of the guidance range ($140-155/t) and RoM production in the upper half of the guidance range. Our EBITDA moves 3%/4% lower in FY25/26 on lower realisations, and our NPV remains broadly unchanged. With the stock trading on a P/NPV of 0.75x, we retain our Overweight rating.