MS-Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd 3Q25 Preliminary Results Miss-20251014

3Q25 miss: Shandong Gold reported a preliminary 9M25 net profit of Rmb3.8-4.1bn,up 84-99% YoY, and preliminary recurring profit was also at a similar level, i.e. not many recurring items. Management highlights operation efficiency improvement,better utilization of low-grade ores (MS note: which however led to some unit COGS increase as shown in 1H25), and benefiting from gold price hikes in 9M25. For 3Q25 alone, net profit was implied to be Rmb1-1.3bn, lower than Rmb1.8bn in 2Q25.We view the QoQ lower 3Q25 earnings as a miss, as gold price was up +2.5% QoQ in 3Q25, and we think the potential reason might be mismatch in production and sales volume.

Continued gold price tailwind: Gold prices rose another 10% in October vs. 3Q25 average. We expect this continued strength to support a rebound in Shandong Gold’s profitability in 4Q25.