JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之2.7, Li Carbonate 百分之3-20250722

JunQ25: Softer FY26 guidance as speculation on inorganic options remains; retainOverweight

Key takeaways from JunQ25 results: 1) Group sales were a strong 11% beat (productionpre-reported) with group AISC coming in line with JPMe, 2) FY26 production guidance of350-380koz at the midpoint was slightly ahead of our prior forecast but AISC guide of$2,610-2,990/oz was soft as the company opportunistically elects to take more marginalounces. We have revised our numbers to guidance with JPMe FY26 now 366koz at $2,886/ozand, 3) inorganic growth speculation continues to swirl in the media, but we still view a BGLdeal as the most logical option at this point. Our FY26 earnings fall 7% on weaker guidance.Our blended PT falls to $4.90/sh but we retain OW.