JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之1.8, Spodumene 百分之2.7-20250723

1H25 preview & CEO’s To Do list

RIO reports next Wednesday after market Australia time: 1) We forecast underlying EBITDAof $11.3bn / earnings of $5.25bn (RIO’s published consensus hasn’t been updated postquarterly). Our 50% EPS payout estimate yields an interim dividend of US$1.62ps, while ourND forecast is $14.6bn, and 2) Following the appointment of Simon Trott as CEO, we expectthe balance of 2025 will see a typical management reshuffle and listening tour, before keypriorities are reassessed (the pace of lithium expansions, M&A, operational performance /costs, simplifying business practices); we don’t expect any material changes to RIO’sstrategy, with any tweaks likely to be communicated in 2026. RIO is beginning to close inon our valuation, but we remain OW rated. We believe the sector can sustain its bounce near-term (driven by China stimulus hopes). However, given nothing has fundamentally changedat this stage, and therefore the rally is more about hope / sentiment, we believe it is unlikelyto drive the sector more than 5-10% higher near term. We are concerned that fatigue on theminers will start to set in again, and the market will go back to the usual concerns on iron oreprice outlook now that Simandou is ramping up from November.