JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch, Li Carbonate 3-20250721

4Q25 volume results solid, but Jansen budget blows out; FY25 result preview

Post quarterly, our FY25 NPAT is -1%. Key takeaways: 1) BHP reported a strong 4Q resultwith volume beats across all major divisions, although iron ore achieved pricing was ~$2/tbelow our forecast (offsetting the Q4 volume beat from an earnings perspective), 2) FY26guidance was released, with the ranges across all assets in line with our forecasts, and 3)taking the gloss off an otherwise strong release was a major budget revision at Jansen to$7.2bn (from $5.7bn), 6m delay for Phase 1 to mid’27, and potential delay for Phase 2 to 2031from 2029 (we increase P2 capex to $7bn from ~$5bn). FY26/27 capex is guided at around$11bn. BHP reports FY25 earnings on the 19 th of August, where we expect EBITDA & NPATof $25.5bn/$10.1bn respectively, ND of $13bn, and a 50% final EPS payout ($0.49ps), takingthe full year to $0.99ps. We retain our Overweight rating on the stock.