JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之1, Gold 百分之3-20250506

Price resilience amidst global turmoil; maintain $100/t for 2025

Key takeaways from our iron ore sector review: 1) Global steel output has started the yearrelatively flat, with output down 0.4% in Q1 (China +0.6% / RoW -1.7%); following GDPgrowth cuts from our Economics Team, we now expect global steel production to fall 5Mtin 2025 from 20Mt growth previously (China unchanged at -1.5% YoY), 2) Iron ore supplyhas been disrupted through Q1 following a severe cyclone season in the Pilbara (lowering ourAust. supply 10Mt); China port stocks have fallen to make up the shortfall, and 3) Pricesremain resilient near $100/t, moving down only slightly post the tariff turmoil. We keep our$100/t estimate for the year unchanged. The key downside risk relates to economic growthslowdowns on the back of US tariff impacts, and any enforced nationwide steel output cutsin China (not our base case). Upside risks relate to policy support in China supporting steeldemand.