MS-Mining Equipment Are we going to see a gold capex super-cycle？-20251007

A tight supply/demand balance. Gold mine supply has grown on average by 0.3% per year since 2018, and our commodity strategists see little reason for that to change in the years ahead (see here). They see investment demand, which has been driven primarily by central banks and more recently by exchange-traded funds,increasing by c. 37% on average per year over 2026-29. Africa represented 26% of global gold volumes mined in 2024; four countries (Ghana, Mali, South Africa and Burkina Faso) accounted for c. 50% of production there. While new greenfield projects have achieved FID in said countries, adverse policy developments, coupled with illegal gold mining, are common themes. Asia represented 18% of global gold volumes mined in 2024. China, the world's largest gold producer, accounted to more than 60% of Asian production. Notably, its mining equipment market is dominated by local players. The same goes for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),which represented 16% of global volumes mined last year; Russia mined c. 60% of the gold produced there. Central and South America is known for its copper deposits but also produced 15% of global gold volumes in 2024. Countries in this region benefit from more stable political and regulatory environments than other gold producing nations; however, illegal gold mining has become increasingly widespread as prices have surged. North America also benefits from a stable political environment, but permitting has been a lingering issue, taking on average 29 years in the US, with no new mines opened since 2002.