JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch., Zinc 百分之1.9...-20251008

Updating sensitivities (again) as gold moves within a stone’s throw of $4,000/oz; pre-quarterlies start and CMM tops up WA8 bid

Key takeaways: 1) spot gold has risen another ~$200/oz since our update last week, and while valuations remain stretched on our US$3,750/oz LT price, scenarios at/just above spot have enough value support and keep us positive on the space, 2) while a substantial premium to historical exchange ratios, CMM’s increased bid for WA8 today still appears to be about shoring up longer term life of Mt Gibson, and may provide grade sweetening options, and 3)with gold quarterlies kicking off next week, pre-releases from RRL and BGL saw volumes broadly in line with JPMe. Our pecking order remains unchanged. We remain positive on NEM (OW; PT $137/sh) and EVN (OW; PT $11/sh), while NST screens at fair value in our view (N; PT $23/sh). In the mid caps, we prefer CMM just ahead of GMD, and we remain positive on RMS and RRL (both OW).