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2QFY26 earnings preview - ultimately, it's about earnings growth

We like Tata Steel and Aegis Logistics going into 2QFY26 earnings, and we expect earnings to be a mixed bag across our coverage. Our key expectations are: a) steelmakers should post strong volume growth, however seasonally soft steel prices should drive lower EBITDA QoQ for JSW/SAIL. We expect TATA Steel to post 15%/39% QoQ/YoY EBITDA growth; b)aluminum producers should benefit from higher LME prices - VEDL should also benefit from higher silver prices, however VEDL’s demerger timeline has been pushed out to March-end next year and will be a key monitorable. Hindalco’s India aluminum business should post QoQ EBITDA growth but we expect Novelis to see a soft 2Q due to tariff headwinds/production disruption (JLR and fire incident at Oswego plant); c) in Logistics, we expect Delhivery’s Service EBITDA margins to decline QoQ largely due to weather disruptions (floods) and deferment of demand due to GST rate cuts (3Q to be strong). We expect Aegis Logistics to post ~20% YoY PAT growth driven by steady LPG volumes and lower interest costs. Within our coverage, TATA, JSTL, DELHIVER and AEGISLOG are our preferred picks