JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Oct. 6) ...-20251006

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update on the soybean and corn harvest. We remain OW on RAIL3, currently trading at 5.5x EV/EBITDA 2026e.

•Soybean. Soybean production for 2024/25 was 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y) while expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y).As of September, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 92% (+3 p.p.m/m), while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 27.4% (+5 p.p.m/m). By last Friday, soybean planting had reached 15% of the total area, +9 p.p. w/w. This puts the planting 5.4 p.p. ahead of last year and 3.6 p.p. above the five-year average. Some farmers have temporarily paused planting because of low rainfall and high temperatures. For the 2025/26 harvest, export estimates were cut by 2% to 29.3 million tons. Consumption in Mato Grosso and other states remained unchanged at 13.2 million tons and 4.5 million tons,respectively. Final inventory rose by 6% to 1 million tons.

•Corn. Corn production for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso has reached a record-high level of 55 million tons (+15% y/y). For the 2025/26 season, production estimates are currently at 52 million tons (-6% y/y), primarily due to a 7% y/y reduction in productivity, although the cultivated area is expected to increase by 2%. Consequently, the corn supply is estimated at 53.3 million tons (-4% y/y), while demand is projected at 52.7 million tons (-2% y/y). This demand is negatively impacted by export expectations, with 26.1 million tons anticipated (-7% y/y), but is partially offset by robust domestic demand within the state, expected to reach 18.6 million tons (+6% y/y), driven by the growth of corn ethanol production. The commercialization rate for the 2024/25 season reached 68% in August (+6 p.p. m/m), but it is -2 p.p. y/y. For the 2025/26 harvest, commercialization is at 15.5% (+4 p.p. m/m), tracking above the previous season by 6 p.p., but it is still below the last five-year average by 7.2 p.p.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of October 3 rd , the Sorriso-Santos truck freight rate was flat w/w and +3.4% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was -1.6% w/w and +22% y/y, and Sorisso-Rondonópolis was flat w/w and +15.5% y/y.