BofA-Latam Agribusiness Mapping corn ethanol plants in Brazil-20250924

Mapping corn ethanol projects from ANP’s pipeline

We recently published a report discussing the fast growth of corn ethanol supply in Brazil(Corn ethanol gradually changing the Midwest landscape in Brazil). We mappedthr evolution of permits granted by the National Agency of Oil, Gas and Biofuels (ANP)and Brazil currently has 30 operating mills of corn ethanol (including flex plants), with ahydrous ethanol capacity of 13.6bn liters per year. Sales volumes of corn ethanol in the2025/26 seasons should be ~9.5bn liters. There are 20 projects with constructionpermits, of which 16 greenfields and 4 brownfields. Out of the 16 greenfields, two arealready constructed and waiting the operating permits; three are expected to finishconstruction in 2025, seven in 2026, two in 2027 and other two have pending scheduleupdates. Out of the 20 projects, 11 are in the Midwest (9 in Mato Grosso, 2 in Goias), inthe center of the corn planting in Brazil.

Growth has been widespread, but Inpasa leads expansion

Since 2020, the industry has been adding around three new corn ethanol plants per year,going from 17 plants in 2020 to 30 in 2025. Growth was widespread among players.Inpasa and FS were the fastest growers, with 5 and 3 new plants in the period,respectively. If we account for this year’s pipeline, we note a strong increase in thenumber of new plants expected for the beginning of 2026. Nine new plants arescheduled to start operating between 2025 and 2026, totaling 2.1bn liters of hydrousethanol capacity (+16% of current). This strong growth may be attributed to low cornprices and subsidized financing lines.