MS-Australia Macro The Monthly- Gold-Plated-20251001

Gold added weight to small cap outperformance over large forthe month and quarter, whilst the ASX 200 five-month streakended, closing 0.8% lower in September. RBA kept rates on holdas Financials lagged on attribution, in favour of Materials.Healthcare added another dose of underperformance.

The streak of five consecutive months of outperformance ended in September,as the ASX 200 closed 0.8% lower at 11798pxs, underperforming global andregional indices. Materials outperformed while Banks lagged as the RBA kept rateson hold at 3.6% in September. We continue to see a November cut as more likelythan not, given our expectation of ultimately only a modest beat to the RBA's Q3core CPI forecasts. Further easing may extend small cap outperformance over large,having outperformed by +11.5ppt in the third quarter, driven by relative overweightexposure to Gold, which contributed 529bps of the broader sector (Materials)contribution of 757bps.