JPM-Delta-One Flows Positioning CTAs buy energy copper USD, sell 2y 5y US rates...-20250929

In this publication, we analyze flow and positioning metrics for global futures andUS-listed ETFs across asset classes.

Weekly Highlights

• Futures Flows: Last week we saw large selling in US equity futures, led by S&P500 (-$17Bn, -1.6z). There was also large net selling (<-1.5z) in Russell 2000,MSCI EM, BIST 30, KOSPI, UST 2y, Canada/Japan 10y and Ethereum futures,but large net buying (>1.5z) in CAC 40, Hang Seng, SET 50, Germany 2y, Brent,Soybean and JPY futures.

• CTAs: Based on key momentum signals, CTAs likely remain broadly long globalequities, sold front-end US rates last week, and remain short EMEA/APACrates. Additionally, they likely bought energy, copper, and USD vs G7 FX w/w,and remain long precious metals and short ags.

• CFTC Positioning: Asset managers rotated from EM and NDX to EAFE andSPX, and sold US rates w/w. Leveraged Funds cut shorts in SPX, RTY and UST2y, and added to longs in EM futures (now running +2.3z net longs). ManagedMoney increased shorts in Natgas (-1.7z) and Ags w/w.

• ETF Flows: Last week, ETFs recorded below-average inflows into Equities($11Bn, -0.4z), strong inflows into Fixed Income ($10.7Bn, 1z) andCommodities ($2.6Bn, 1.4z), and outflows from Currency/Multi-asset (-$0.7Bn,-1.2z).

• Regionally, US equity ETFs recorded below-average inflows ($5.1Bn, -0.6z) asflows were suppressed by a reversal of the prior week’s custom in-kind basket(CIB) rebalance inflows. We also saw a >$30Bn switch from VOO to IVV lastweek. Meanwhile, International DM (~$4.6Bn, 0.8z) and MENA (4.3z) ETFssaw strong inflows, and Japan recorded notable outflows (-1.9z).

• In Equity Styles, Low Vol saw notable outflows (-1.4z), while call/put writingsaw inflows. Growth and Value ETFs recorded large outflows due to the unwindof the prior week’s CIB rebalance inflows.

• In Equity Sectors, we saw a rotation from Financials (-1.5z) and UtilitiesintoEnergy (2z, largest inflows in over 1Y), Staples (1.7z) and Industrials.

• In Bonds, we saw ~1z inflows into Agg, medium/long-term UST, and IGCorporate bond ETFs.

• Gold ETF inflows continued last week, with ~$2.5Bn going into preciousmetals ETFs.

• Crypto ETFs saw significant outflows last week (-$0.9Bn, -1.3z).