JPM-AUSTRALAFRSTTO MARKET Top Stories-20250930

MTM and revising LT gold prices higher to $3,750/oz; NEM, CMM and RMS key picks into SepQ reporting

Key takeaways: 1) gold forward curves have moved 9% higher through the curve in SepQ, 2) in line with our updatedmethodology, we take our LT price 21% higher to $3,750/oz and while value support at these levels appears slim, scenarios at$4,000/oz (in line with our Global Commodities team MarQ26 forecasts) still provide sufficient upside to keep our Overweighttilt across our coverage, and 3), heading into quarterlies, we note both NST and BGL have flagged softer quarterlies, and weremain cautious on PRU as Cote D’Ivoire and Tanzania (key project locations) head towards elections in October, and are allnames we have Neutral ratings on. We remain positive on NEM (OW; PT $134/sh) and EVN (OW; PT $10.50/sh), notingadditional MTM upside from copper, while NST screens at fair value in our view (N; PT $22/sh). In the mid caps, we upgradeCMM to Overweight and it moves just ahead of GMD in our pecking order; we remain positive on RMS and RRL (both OW).