DB-Precious Special Report Who drives gold prices？-20250929

In our FX Blueprint note we remain constructive on gold versus short crudeoil. This is consistent with our upgrade to 2026 gold forecasts from lastweek. In our narrative we briefly touched on the fact that ETF positioningremains shy of the historical high in ounces. Indeed, the 'headroom' on ETFholdings compared to the Oct 2020 peak is still substantial at 15 mm troyoz, down from 17 mm troy oz.

This year's renaissance of ETF demand has investors making one of the top3 years of gold accumulation since their creation. This shows that AUM at70% above the 2020 level (in USD terms) is no limitation. Also ETF demandis having a 50% stronger influence on gold prices based on a univariateweekly regression, than when ETF investors were selling gold between2021-2024.