DB-CEEMEA Blog Turkiye：flows reserve tracker：surging gold prices support reserves-20250926

Overview

Following the introduction of our Türkiye flows and reserve tracker in May, wecontinue to provide our updates and expectations for the near term.

Positive inflows into local assets turned positive. Data for the week endingSeptember 19th show foreign portfolio inflows turned positive, recovering from theinitial sell-off and outflows triggered after the 2 September CHP Istanbul courtdecision. Inflows into carry positions totaled USD 1.7bn in the last two weeks,largely offsetting the USD 2bn outflows from the first week (Figure 2). Similarly,initial outflows from local bond and equity markets reversed as the postponementof the CHP court case likely acted as a catalyst. Carry-trade positions remain robustat ~USD 36bn, slightly below their August peak, suggesting local banks are almostfully utilizing their rightway FX derivative limits with offshore investors (Figure 8).Year-to-date, investors increased equity exposure by USD 1.7bn, while bondmarket flows were a contained USD 0.5bn (Figure 5 & Figure 6). Foreign ownershipin local bond market, at 7% as of 19 September, is below March levels (11%) andsignificantly below the pre-2018 levels (~ 20%-25%) (Figure 4).