BofA-European Metals Mining Postcard from USA：Copper rallying.Big Miner M A. Gold...-20250929

Marketing feedback: Copper, M&A, Gold, EU steel policy

We’ve been marketing in the USA (and EU, and AsiaPac). Key discussion points: (1)Copper market. Tighter on supply issues, new focus on FCX’s Grasberg. (See also: Copperprice upgrades, raise price objectives). (2) M&A: Focus on Anglo Teck, questions onwhether other Big Miners will get involved. (3) Gold: strong FCF, could be catalyst formore M&A. (4) EU steel: Optimism on safeguards, how much priced in?

Copper: FCX Grasberg shut tightens market materially

A recent tragic accident at FCX’s (Freeport-McMoRan) Grasberg mine led to employeedeaths and will result in the mine selling minimal copper in Q4. Grasberg produces c. 200kt of copper per quarter. Copper market tightens, materially. Some debate withinvestors as to whether management has been conservative in its new guidance aboutthe asset; general view is yes and that perhaps the market has been too aggressive indiscounting the impact of the event in shares. Other mines impacted elsewhere includeCodelco’s El Teniente, IVN’s (Ivanhoe) Kamoa Kakula and Teck’s QBII. Premium forcopper companies that do what they say on the package, e.g., ANTO (Antofagasta),SCCO (Southern Copper). ANTO site visit later this year = catalyst. KGHM cheap copper& silver. Market tightens, we raise forecasts. See report: Copper price upgrades.