JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Sep.29)...-20250929

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest. We remain OW on RAIL3, currently trading at 5.5xEV/EBITDA 2026e.

•Corn. Corn production for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso is at 55 milliontons (+15% y/y). Production estimates for the 2025/26 season remain at 52million tons (-6% y/y), driven by a 6.7% y/y reduction in productivity while thearea is expected to increase by 2%. The commercialization rate for the 2024/25season reached 68% in August (+6 p.p. m/m), but it is -2 p.p. y/y. For the2025/26 harvest, commercialization is at 15.5% (+4 p.p. m/m), tracking abovethe previous season by 6 p.p., but it is still below the last five-year average by7.2 p.p. The basis differential for corn prices between Mato Grosso and theCME-Group decreased by 3.8% w/w to minus R$8.8/sc due to a 0.5% increasein local corn prices, driven by strong domestic demand, while Chicago pricesremained stable with a slight 0.3% decrease. According to CONAB, Brazil’s2025/26 first corn crop planting reached 21% of the estimated area, advancing6.1 p.p w/w and 4.6 p.p. y/y, driven by strong progress in southern states.

•Soybean. Soybean production for 2024/25 is at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y)while expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y).As of August, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 92% (+3 p.p.m/m), while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 27.4% (+5 p.p.m/m). USDA reports that 19% of the 2025/26 U.S. soybean crop has beenharvested, 5 p.p. behind last season. Crop conditions remain strong, but totaloutput is estimated at 17.1 million tons, -1.5% y/y and upcoming months willbe key for final production and China’s demand outlook.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of September 26 th , the Sorriso-Santos truckfreight rate was flat both w/w and y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was+3% w/w and +19% y/y, and Sorisso-Rondonópolis was +1.8% w/w and +15y/y.