Jefferies-Metals Mining Examining Copper Production Trends：2Q25 Wrap-20250919

We track quarterly copper production from miners that account for ~70% ofglobal mined copper supply. In this latest installment, we now incorporatefull reported production for 2Q25 as all companies in our database havereported 2Q volumes. Based on these reports, total copper production for 2Q25increased 4.8% q/q and also increased by 2.8% y/y due to improved volumesat Codelco, MMG, and Rio Tinto. Copper mine supply growth likely materiallyslowed in 3Q.

This note is the latest in our ongoing quarterly series on global copper production trends. In thislatest installment, we now incorporate full reported production for 2Q25 as all companies in ourdatabase have reported 2Q volumes. As discussed in our prior notes, the impact of mine supplygrowth on the copper market balance is a key point of debate. Some believe that there will be asupply overhang over the next year as projects continue to ramp up and/or expand (KFM, QB2, OTunderground, Kamoa-Kakula, Cobre Panama restart, etc.), with market deficits therefore unlikelyuntil later this decade. While we include production from these projects in our model, risk to overallsupply remains to the downside. Even in a world of 2% global GDP growth, we would expect sizabledeficits in the copper market over the next 12+ months.