JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore unch,NdPr Oxide -百分之2.8...-20250908

Aluminium de-merger would create material value for shareholders

The potential for S32 to demerge its Aluminium portfolio has been a recent focus forinvestors. The idea was raised at the sell-side round table this week, where the CEOacknowledged it could create value, but stated there are no plans to pursue it under his tenure.However, we believe it may become a focus for new CEO Matt Daley who joins as deputyCEO in Feb’26. Our scenario analysis highlights: 1) S32 currently trades at ~5x EV/EBITDA, a discount to copper plays (~6x median) and aluminium companies (5.5x median);we think separating into AluminiumCo and BaseMetalCo would create shareholder value ifthese vehicles re-rated to higher multiples as per our Al/Cu global comps sheet; 2) two smallercompanies would provide more operational focus, less complexity, and mean that growthprojects such as Hermosa become more material; and 3) given there are no plans to do thiscurrently, we expect the earliest that S32 would explore this is in 2HCY26 after the new CEOsettles in (standard initial playbook is listening tour, management reshuffle, and ensuringoperational stability). We retain our Neutral rating.