JPM-China Metals Activity Tracker Copper,aluminium zinc inventories continue to rise. China...-20250908

We present our high-frequency inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper,aluminium and zinc in China for the week ended 5 September. Our data plots Chinainventory trends, a proxy for metals consumption. Weekly high-frequency datashows ~3 months of weaker physical consumption for copper, aluminium and zincvs typical seasonality. Consequently, China’s previously low aluminium and zincinventories have risen back to levels consistent with historical averages, pluscopper inventories continue to rise, indicative of looser domestic physical markets.J.P. Morgan Economists forecast a slowing pace of China GDP in Q3/Q4(+3.0/2.5% YoY vs +4.1% in Q2).

Also of note last week is a sharp decline in China steel mill margins, with steel rebarmargins dropping to the lowest (loss making) year to date. This reflects an 8% dropin domestic rebar prices across Aug-Sept, whilst iron ore has rebounded to ~$105/t.Mysteel high-frequency data indicates weaker China steel consumption last week(-4% WoW) and lower steel production (-3% WoW). Global iron ore shipmentsincreased 7% WoW (+3% YoY) driven by a 23% increase in weekly Brazil exports.