JPM-Aluminium Dashboard Global demand bfz 百分之3YTD, inventory remains low...-20250909

Key takeaways: (1) Global aluminium demand is up 3% YTD through July (China+4% and RoW +2%); however, production is softer at 1.5% globally (China +2%,RoW flat). (2) Global inventories remain low at ~1,125kt, but have climbed up~300kt since late June (still well below 2024 levels, and near decade lows for thistime of year). (3) Alumina prices have fallen from ~$380/t in late July to $337/t atspot (aluminium prices are largely flat over the same period) with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at 13% (below the average of 17%). The aluminium priceis up 5% YTD with forward curves in slight contango. Globally, JPM’s keyOverweight calls with Al exposure are Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN), Norsk Hydro(NHY NO) and Press Metal (PMAH MK). J.P. Morgan’s Global CommoditiesResearch team sees a balanced market this year and a mild surplus next year. SeeGreg’s latest note here: Metals Weekly - Aluminium Premium Paralysis